Returning precipitation integrated with fossil groundwater restoration in the Middle East and North Africa

Returning precipitation integrated with fossil groundwater restoration in the Middle East and North Africa: Architecture of ancient water landscapes along with primeval green forests　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Haruka Yoshimura, Ph.D.

Fig. 1 Water landscapes along with deep forests play a crucial role in groundwater recharge. In the Middle East and North Africa, numerous freshwater lakes, groundwater outlets and river flows supported densely wooded terrestrial ecosystems until the early Holocene (about 5,000 years ago). In large geographic areas of the region, the terrestrial ecosystems were composed of Eurasian temperate tree genera, such as oak (Quercus) and birch (Betula), that are currently widespread throughout Europe to East Asia (including Japan), associated with African elements which originated on the supercontinent Gondwana (see explanation in http://harukanoor4.blogspot.jp/2017/04/specific-structure-of-primordial.html).

Fossil groundwater depletion and worsening drought conditions in the Middle East and North Africa

Today the Middle East and North Africa suffer from arid or hyper-arid climatic conditions. These regions will face the strongest negative effect from Climate Change, in particular a significant increase in aridity. Worsening drought conditions already threaten food security. In Syria, prolonged drought (2006–2011) caused widespread multiyear agricultural failure, which in turn accelerated migration to urban areas (estimated at 1.5 million people). Mass migration further contributed to urban unemployment, economic dislocation and social unrest. Syria’s political difficulties and the ongoing civil war stem from a spreading water shortage and ever growing food insecurity, along with other complex interrelating factors (Gleick 2014; Kelley et al. 2015).

During drought, the supply of groundwater plays an important role in meeting water needs (e.g., Calow et al. 2010; Castle et al. 2014). Depletion of groundwater during the recent drought dramatically increased Syria’s vulnerability to drought (Kelley et al. 2015).

The mass migration of over one million refugees and migrants from water-stressed countries to Europe in 2015 (UNHCR 2015) may threaten the socio-economic stability of Europe. Refugees may suffer unemployment, emotional hardship due to culture shock, and even loss of identity.

Groundwater is the primary source of drinking water and agricultural irrigation in the Middle East and North Africa. Since the early 1950s, new schemes have been planned to develop groundwater in the vast arid areas of North Africa (Lloyd and Farag 1978) and Arabia (Lloyd and Pim 1990) to facilitate social development, economic growth and to ensure food security (Sowers et al. 2011). But the dramatically increased use of groundwater resources through the introduction of submersible pumps and the widespread drilling of deep aquifers induces serious consequences (Foster and Loucks 2006; Salameh 2008; Edmunds 2009, 2012): significant water-level decline; increasing groundwater salinity; aquifer contamination; degradation of ecosystems and agricultural lands; and socio-economic impacts such as human migration, as well as conflict among water users (e.g., Foster and Loucks 2006; Jasem et al. 2011).　

For thousands or even millions of years, “fossil aquifers” have been the source of groundwater in the Middle East and North Africa, but present recharge is very limited or negligible due to lack of precipitation coupled with high evaporation rate (Sharaf and Hussein 1996; Thorweihe and Heinl 2002; Abderrahman 2006; Edmunds 2009). In addition, overexploitation causes persistent groundwater depletion through the extraction of groundwater at a rate exceeding the rate of natural recharge. The current situation of groundwater over-pumping is unsustainable and represents a one-time use of a resource stock similar to pumping oil out of the ground (Gleick 1998; Gleick and Palaniappan 2010; Taylor et al. 2013). Even reducing withdrawals could extend the lifespan of the aquifers but would not result in sustainable management of fossil groundwater (Scanlon et al. 2012). Therefore, a radical change in water resource governance towards restoration of groundwater recharge is inevitable (http://harukanoor3.blogspot.jp/). On a food and water security strategy basis, shaping landscapes of massive wetlands and high leaf area index (LAI) vegetation in large geographic areas has benefits (Fig.1).

Terrestrial vegetation comprises a wide variety of ecosystems such as forests, wetlands and grasslands. The terrestrial ecosystems have hydrologic services such as aquifer recharge, water quality improvement, and flood control, integrated with diverse ranges of functions and values. These functions and values are collectively known as “ecosystem services.”

The distribution of global vegetation has traditionally been thought to be determined by local climatic factors, particularly annual temperature and precipitation. However, this view has changed to the concept that the presence or absence of vegetation can influence the regional climate from multilateral viewpoints (Shukla and Mintz 1982; Foley et al. 2005). Historically, a number of regions of the earth have experienced significant climate change, leading to changes in precipitation and aridity over large areas coinciding with a vegetation biomass decrease caused by human activity. Conversely, the historical evidence of the consequence of anthropogenic nature transformation clearly suggests that appropriate architecture of terrestrial ecosystems maximizing the functions and values of ecosystem services will restore precipitation and replenish fossil groundwater aquifers.
        Reducing the consequences of water scarcity requires reducing the pressures on water resources. The structural solution is returning precipitation by restoring interaction between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems (http://harukanoor4.blogspot.jp/2016/). Understanding ancient green landscapes in the Middle East and North Africa is a guide to a sustainable future in which landscapes are shaped to return precipitation integrated with fossil groundwater replenishment. 

Major fossil groundwater aquifers in the Middle East and North Africa

The principal aquifers in the region (Fig.2) were recharged during Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene when the climate of the area was much wetter (Scanlon et al. 2006; Edmunds 2009), though today the region suffers from arid or hyper-arid climatic conditions.
        The temperate zone in the Northern Hemisphere comprises the regions of the Earth’s surface that are located between the Tropic of Cancer (approximately 23.5 ° north latitude) and the Arctic Circle (approximately 66.5° north latitude). The principal aquifers in the regions are mostly located in the temperate zone.

Fig. 2 Principal fossil groundwater aquifers in the Middle East and North Africa. North Western Sahara Aquifer: modified from Mamou et al. (2006), Nubian Aquifer: modified from Thorweihe & Heinl (2002) and Bakhbakhi (2006), Desi Aquifer: modified from Jasem et al. (2011), Saudi Arabia Aquifers: modified from Abderrahman (2006). The principal aquifers are mostly located in the temperate zone. During the period that groundwater recharge occurred, the Middle East and North Africa were covered with densely wooded terrestrial ecosystems.

North Western Sahara Aquifer System. The North Western Sahara Aquifer System (Fig. 2) covers an area of around one million km² and is shared by Algeria, Libya and Tunisia (Mamou et al. 2006). Environmental isotope data of the aquifer indicates that it was recharged during the humid period of the late Pleistocene, about 40,000 to 20,000 years ago, and Holocene, about 4,000 years ago, to the present (Guendouz and Moulla 2010).

The groundwater extraction from the Western Sahara aquifer system has substantially increased since the 1980s by the expansion of drilled wells and accompanying systems of exploitation (Mamou et al. 2006). Although the aquifer is receiving considerable recharge by the present-day precipitation (Guendouz and Moulla 2010; Al-Gamal 2011), the continued recent exploitation may exceed the rate of recharge. Signs of deterioration of the state of water resources have already been observed, including water salinization, disappearance of artesian flow, outlets drying up, and excessive drawdown in pumping wells (Mamou et al. 2006).

Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System. The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System, located in the Saharan desert in north-eastern Africa, is the world’s largest known fossil water aquifer system (Fig. 2). It spans the political boundaries of four countries ― south-east Libya, Egypt, north-east Chad and north Sudan ― and covers more than 2 million km² (Thorweihe and Heinl 2002; Salem and Pallas 2004; Bakhbakhi 2006). Current recharge of the desert aquifer is negligible. The aquifer was recharged under wetter climates of late Pleistocene and early Holocene around 4,500 years before present (Thorweihe and Heinl 2002; Edmunds 2009, 2012). Recent stable isotope and radioisotope data indicate that the aquifer contains old groundwater recharged by precipitation of the Pleistocene up to one million years ago (Sturchio et al. 2004).

Since the early 1960’s, exploitation of the groundwater reserves has taken place and is increasing each year. Most of the groundwater abstraction from the aquifer is used for agriculture, either for large development projects in Libya or for private farms located in old traditional oasis in Egypt. The Great Man-Made River project, designed for transporting fossil water to the populated coast areas, is under development in Libya and is already supplying water to Benghazi and to the major coastal cities (Salem and Pallas 2004).

This exploitation has resulted in continuous groundwater level decline to a maximum drawdown of about 60 m and has ceased spring discharge (Bakhbakhi 2006).

Fossil aquifers in the Arabian Peninsula. Groundwater in the Arabian Peninsula is found in the many thick, highly permeable aquifers of large sedimentary basins in the Arabian Shield.

The largest aquifer is the Saq sandstone aquifer (Fig. 2) that extends over 1,200 km in Saudi Arabia and northwards in Jordan. Carbon age determinations indicate that the aquifer was recharged during periods of the Pleistocene, between 10,000 and 30,000 years before present (Sharaf and Hussein 1996). Present recharge is very limited, due to lack of precipitation coupled with high evaporation rate (Sharaf and Hussein 1996; Abderrahman 2006).

Fossil groundwater has been utilized extensively in Saudi Arabia since the early 1950s (Lloyd and Pim 1990). Particularly since the early 1970s this aquifer has been pumped heavily especially in the areas of Tabuk, Hail, Al Qassim and As Sirr (Sharaf and Hussein 1996) mostly for irrigated agriculture, as well as for domestic and industrial purposes (Abderrahman 2006; FAO 2009). By 2009, severe depletion of groundwater resources prompted Saudi Arabia to change its agricultural policies from self-sufficient agricultural production mainly by center-pivot irrigation toward food imports and agricultural projects abroad (e.g., Lippman 2010).

Disi Aquifer extends from the southern edge of the Dead Sea in Jordan to Tabuk in northwest Saudi Arabia (Fig. 2). Significant exploitation of the Jordanian side of the aquifer started in 1980. Aqaba city on the Red Sea is provided the groundwater for agricultural and domestic purposes (Jasem et al. 2011). Over-exploitation of groundwater resources due to undependable surface water systems: Jordan, Zarqa and Yarmouk river systems has resulted in decrease of the water table, increasing groundwater salinization (e.g., El-Naqa and Al-Shayeb 2009) and ceasing or reduction in spring discharge. Subsequently, the Azraq Oasis, a wetland of international importance, dried up in 1985 (Mohsen 2007). Water deficits coupled with increasing salinization in irrigation water has already reduced agricultural productivity and increased land degradation, threatening food security (e.g., Jaber and Mohsen 2001; Salameh 2008).   

Disappearing water landscapes and vanished ancient lakes and rivers

A clear and present threat of disappearing lakes and rivers

Today, the Aral Sea (45°N, 60°E; Fig. 2), formerly one of the four largest lakes in the world, has been shrinking. Two great rivers feed the Aral Sea, the Amu-Darya and the Syr-Darya. Until AD 1,500, the Amu-Darya River flowed into the Caspian Sea via the tributary river of Uzbai, which is now dried up completely (Meybeck 2003).

Current water levels in downstream regions of the Tigris-Euphrates River have decreased mainly due to damming that started during the 1970s in upstream regions. In present times, the downstream regions, ancient Mesopotamia or the Fertile Crescent, suffer drought and over-reliance on groundwater due to declining surface water of the rivers (Voss et al. 2013).

In Africa, Lake Chad (14°N, 13°30´E; Fig. 2), a freshwater lake located in the Sahel zone, is slowly disappearing.

In the Middle East and North Africa, numerous ancient rivers and lakes have dried up after centuries or millenniums of land mismanagement by humans and subsequent regional climate change. Today’s ongoing drying trend seems to have accelerated in recent years. If current trends continue unchecked, remaining rivers such as the Tigris-Euphrates River and shrinking lakes such as the Aral Sea and Lake Chad may vanish.

 Vanished ancient lakes and rivers in the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula

It is widely accepted that modern humans (Homo sapiens) originated in sub-Saharan Africa between 150,000 and 200,000 years ago, in the Quaternary period of the Cenozoic Era (e.g., Osborne et al. 2008). During the Late Pleistocene, modern humans dispersed into Eurasia via Arabia (Armitage et al. 2011; Petraglia 2011). Today, North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula are principally hyperarid, the largest dry regions in the world. However, recent archeological research reveals the existence of numerous freshwater lakes, groundwater outlets, and river flows during Pleistocene and the early Holocene times.

Vanished ancient lakes and rivers in the Sahara. Roughly 5,000−8,800 years ago, a 800 km long river flowed in eastern Libya, across Serir Tibesti into Serir Calanscio, along with freshwater lakes. In northern Sudan, a 640 km long tributary river with numerous groundwater outlets and freshwater lakes flowed and linked the Nile River from about 9,500 to 4,500 years ago. A low-temperature freshwater lake about 10 m deep along with green vegetation cover provided optimal habitats for hippopotamus, large savanna mammals such as buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) and domestic cattle. In present times, the Wadi Howar (17°30´N, 27°25´E) remains a dry riverbed (Pachur and Kröpelin 1987). In the mountainous region where the Wadi Howar issues, a vastly expanded palaeolake [the West Nubian Palaeolake and the Northern Darfur Megalake, an area of 30,750 km² during the Pleistocene and early Holocene period; 18°40´N, 26°30´E, 550 m above sea level (asl.)] existed. The palaeolake was surrounded by up to 1,500 m elevated uplands, allowing for the collection of surface water which was subsequently infiltrated to recharge the Nubian Aquifer (Elsheikh et al. 2011).

In the Sahara, geomorphological evidence shows the existence of four large lakes: Lake Megachad (with a peak depth of 173 m and an area of 361,000 km²), Lake Megafezzan (two large lakes of 1,350 and 1,730 km² in present day Libya; 27°´N, 15°E ), Ahnet-Mouydir Megalake (with an area of 32,000 km² in central Algeria; 26°N, 2°E), and Chotts Megaleke (with an area of 30,000 km² in present day northern Algeria; 33°45´N, 8°30´E), during the Pleistocene and the early Holocene (Armitage et al. 2007, Drake et al. 2011). Among them, Lake Megachad was the largest, bigger than the Caspian Sea (Fig.2), which is the biggest lake on Earth today (Drake and Bristow 2006). At present, Lake Chad (with a maximum depth of 11 m and an area of only 1,350 km²) remains a remnant of these once massive palaeolakes.

Prior to the onset of the present day arid and semi-arid conditions around 4,500 years before present, the Sahara was comprised of large interlinked water landscapes with a series of linked lakes, rivers, and inland deltas that sustained human population. 

Vanished ancient lakes and rivers in the Arabian Peninsula. In southern Jordan, a vast complex of lakes existed during the Late Pleistocene (Petit-Maire et al. 2010).

In the sand sea of An Nafud in the northern part of the Arabian Peninsula, vast lakes (with an area of several km²; 28°N, 41°E) occurred in the Pleistocene between 34,000 and 24,000 years ago. Following the disappearance of the vast palaeolakes, shallow lakes and swamps existed during Holocene around 8,400−5,400 years ago (Schulz and Whiney 1986). The oasis of Tayma (27°38´N, 38°33´E) at the northern branch of An Nafud sand sea is located in an area of rich archaeological heritage, including petroglyphs (rock art). A perennial palaeolake (with a minimum depth of 13 m and an area of 18.45 km²) in Tayma slowly shrunk due to possible aridization in the region between 9,500 and 5,800 years ago. The city wall system had already been erected around 4,000 years ago and salt marsh conditions, the remnants of the palaeolake, were described in the 11th century A.D. (Engel et al. 2012).

In southern Saudi Arabia, in the Rub’ al-Khali (the ‘Empty Quarter’), the world’s largest sand desert, Palaeolake Mundafan (with a maximum area of 300 km² and a maximum depth of 25−30 m during the late Pleistocene; 18°34´N, 45°29´E) shrunk during early Holocene due to prevailing arid conditions in the region (Rosenberg et al. 2011). The Mundafan palaeolake, inhabited by hippopotamus, was located upland between 860 and 870 m asl. The presence of hippopotamus with diverse large mammal species such as wild cattle (Bos primigenius, Bubalus sp.) suggests that Palaeolake Mundafan was at times a deep permanent water body with riparian forests, surrounded with large foraging ranges of savannah (Crassard et al. 2013).

Several large freshwater palaeolakes dotted the southern Arabian Peninsula during the early to mid-Holocene. In the inland desert of Yemen, the Ramalt as-Sab’atayn, freshwater lakes such as Palaeolake al-Hawa (15°52´N, 46°53´E, 710 m asl.), Palaeolake Rada (14°26´N, 44°49´E, 2,000 m asl.) and Palaeolake Saada (17°00´N, 43°45´E, 1,800 m asl.) existed (Lézine et al. 1998, 2010). In the United Arab Emirates, Palaeolake Awafi (25°42´N, 57°55´E, 6 m asl.) existed near the Arabo-Persian Gulf, directly south of the Straits of Hormuz (Parker et al. 2004). Many archaeological sites with agricultural settlement during the 5th millennium ago indicate that sophisticated irrigation systems (date-palm gardens and cereal cultivation) were developed in the coastal, piedmont and mountainous areas in the southern Arabian Peninsula (e.g., Lézine et al. 2010).      

Many rivers flowed through the Arabian Peninsula and interconnected with the large freshwater lakes and numerous groundwater outlets. Recent archaeological research reveals that sufficient surface water supply by massive lakes and river systems was a critical factor for the expansion of modern humans from Africa into Asia and Europe via Arabia during the Late Pleistocene (Armitage et al. 2011; Petraglia 2011; Petraglia et al. 2011, 2012; Rosenberg et al. 2011).

Green landscapes in the Middle East and North Africa

Vast primeval cedar forests in Mesopotamia and Levantine at around 5,000 years ago. The world’s first work of literature, the Epic of Gilgamesh, recorded in cuneiform, vividly inscribes that the ancient city of Uruk (in present-day Iraq; 31°19´N, 45°38´E) in Mesopotamia was surrounded by vast primeval forests (Fig. 3), where tall cedars “raised aloft their luxuriance” and cast a “delightful shade”.

To build up a civilized city, Gilgamesh (ca. 2600 B.C.), the king of Uruk, and his male companion, Enkido, ventured into the deep forests where the foliage was so dense that the sun could barely shine through. They battled and killed the forest guardian, Humbaba, and cut down large amounts of the giant cedars, “stripping the mountains of their cover.” They came back home by cedar rafts floating “like giant snakes” down the Euphrates River with the head of Humbaba (Perlin 2005).

In the early 21st century, in the downstream regions of the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin, water levels of the rivers have rapidly decreased to less than a third of their normal capacity mainly due to upstream water use and damming (UN 2013; Al-Ansari 2013). The Mesopotamian Marshes or Iraqi Marshes in the lower floodplains of the Tigris and the Euphrates, the largest wetland ecosystem in the Middle East often referred as the ‘Garden of Eden,’ are rapidly disappearing due to human mismanagement of land coupled with gradual aridity (Richardson and Hussain 2006; Chulov 2009). In past decade, Iraq experienced frequent and harmful droughts particularly in 2007–2009 and 2010–2011, which in turn accelerated withdrawal of groundwater (Chulov 2009; Voss et al. 2013). 

Fig. 3 Primordial temperate forest in the Northern Hemisphere. Temperate forests are diverse ecosystems composed of mixtures of conifers such as cedar, broad-leaved evergreen and broad-leaved deciduous trees with understory vegetation of diverse vascular plants (flowering plants, conifers, ferns, horsetails and clubmosses). In the Middle East and North Africa, temperate zone and tropical uplands were covered with deep forests made up of Eurasian temperate forest genera associated with African elements which originated on the supercontinent Gondwana (see explanation in http://harukanoor4.blogspot.jp/2017/04/specific-structure-of-primordial.html). 

Mount Lebanon (34°18´N, 36°07´E) was known for its valuable timber of cedar (Lebanon cedar, Cedrus libani), from the time of the Pharaoh Snefru of the Old Kingdom of Egypt (ca. 2600 B.C.) and Sargon of Akkad in Mesopotamia (ca. 2350 B.C.), until the reign of Emperor Hadrian (A.D. 117–138) of the Roman Empire. In the 20th century, deciduous oak forests and mixed fir/oak forests, the degraded remnant of an original cover of the primeval cedar forests, were lost mainly to fuel rail lines during World War I and World War II (Mikesell 1969).

Today the humid Levantine forests have been reduced to dry scrub, and the current situation of Mount Lebanon is under the negative influence of anthropogenic alteration of the terrestrial environment: frequent droughts, increase in temperature and subsequent reduction of snow cover, decline of discharge from rivers and springs, and significant groundwater level declines (Shaban 2009).

Ancient green Sahara around 2,500 years ago. Records of voyages along the African west coast by Hanno of Carthage (ca. 5th century B.C.) refer to massive fires, which are now believed to be the annual burning over of the grazing region south of Sahara (Sagan et al. 1979). The records of the earliest circumnavigation suggest that the south of Sahara, now desert, was covered with massive vegetation around 2,500 years ago.

Pollen and plant microfossil records from 6,000 years ago show that Sahara was either steppe, at low elevation, or temperate xerophytic woods/scrub, or even warm mixed forest in the Saharan mountains (Jolly et al. 1998).

Vast primeval forests in North Africa and the Roman Empire. In ancient Greece, timber resources fit for shipbuilding were lost at around 400 B.C. owing to centuries of tree cutting and livestock overgrazing. Therefore, the Athenians, under the leadership of Alcibiades (ca. 450–404 B.C.) attempted the disastrous Sicilian expedition. They desired the abundant timber of Rome and its surroundings to build an enormous fleet to wage the Peloponnesian War (431–404 B.C.), the conflict between two leading city-states in ancient Greece, Athens and Sparta. The Italian peninsula and the surrounding islands were among the few accessible spots left in southern Europe where the most desired woods for building fighting ships, such as firs, grew (Perlin 2005).

The dense forests provided young Rome with the material essential to its growth, like a mythological she-wolf or “Lupa” who suckled the infant twins Romulus and Remus, the founders of Rome. As Rome grew, increased population and the Roman pursuit of great wealth led to agricultural expansion and timber extraction from nearby forests. Subsequently, the landscape of the city of Roma converted to cultivated fields and large cities. The Roman Republic (509–27 B.C.) supplemented wood resources through its expansion by conquest and annexation of richly forested timberlands from neighboring provinces.

Julius Caesar (100–44 B.C.) was eager to exploit timber from the vast expanse of forests in North Africa, consisting of dense woods shading the side of Mount Atlas that sloped toward Africa. Underneath their canopy, fruits of all varieties allegedly sprung up in abundance (Perlin 2005). Today the so-called North Western Sahara Basin, extending over much of Algeria, Libya and Tunisia, is an arid region with rainfall ranging from 20 to 100 mm·yr-1. The majority of the 4 million people living in this region depend on groundwater resources for its water needs (Guendouz and Moulla 2010). The historical records suggest that Mount Atlas was covered with vast primeval forests and North Western Sahara, now desert, was fertile land with a much milder climate around 2,000 years ago.

During the Roman Empire (27 B.C.–476 A.D.), the wealthy Romans built huge, lavishly decorated houses with central heating. The system’s furnace burned bulky fuel and circulated the heat through hollow bricks in the floors and walls. From the first century A.D. onward, the public baths became popular gathering places (e.g., Watkin 1996). The Roman bath complexes took on monumental proportions with vast colonnades and wide-spanning arches and domes, including wide windows made of glass to allow sunlight to penetrate the baths. The public baths also consumed much fuel. In addition, wood was the principal fuel in industries like mining, smelting, and the making of ceramics, bricks and glass.

To supply an ever-growing population and consumption demand, all forest resources in Italy were consumed. Due to the poverty of forest resources at home, industrial centers moved to Roman territory, e.g., ceramic industries transferred to France, glassmakers moved to southern France, iron mining and smelting relocated to southern England. The fuel situation in Rome during the third and fourth centuries A.D. was distressing. Romans had become dependent on foreign supplies of fuel far from the forests in North Africa, and widespread deforestation induced degradation of soil in Rome. In the fourth century Rome was under the constant threat of famine due to a drastic decline in agricultural productivity induced by the soil degradation. The city depended on the grain fields of Egypt for its food supply (Perlin 2005).

Forest resources in the Atlas Mountains and the Islamic caliphates. Calif Abd-al-Malk (646–705), the ruler of the Umayyad Caliphate (661–750) in the late seventh century, was aware of great potential in naval warfare and organized construction of a fleet in Ifriqiyah (Tunis) by experienced Egyptian shipbuilders. Large quantities of wood were felled from the nearby mountains that sloped all the way down to the North African coast and faced the island of Sardinia.

During the Abbasid Caliphate (750–1258), Nasir Khusraw (1004–1088), one of Persia’s greatest philosophers of the eleventh century, visited Cairo and admired the illustrious city in Islam. Nasir observed Cairo’s transportation system of canal networks and gardens in bloom irrigated by waterwheels made of wood. Cairo consumed vast amounts of wood for the construction of waterwheels, ships, and for fuel. The prosperity of Egypt was sustained by readily available wood from many regions, such as Spain, Sicily, and the Phoenician coast, where woodlands remained at that time. Cedar (Atlas cedar, Cedrus atlantica) wood cut from the Atlas Mountains was used for shipbuilding and furniture construction (Perlin 2005).

Even in the eleventh century around 900 years ago, vast cedar forests covered the Atlas Mountains, and provided the Islamic caliphates with the valuable timber resources of cedar and other materials essential to its prosperity. Furthermore, the dense forests must have played a significant role of active groundwater recharge. 

In the 20th century, between 1940 and 1982, around 75% of remaining original cedar forests in Morocco and Algeria were lost (Terrab et al. 2008). Historical records show ancient civilization consumed the deep primordial forests in North Africa. Due to grazing activities and fuelwood needs over thousands of years (Mikesell 1960), coupled with recent deforestation, the vast expanse of cedar forests have been reduced to small, fragmented forest patches (Ajbilou et al. 2006; Terrab et al. 2008). Today the region is under threat of deforestation due to increasing aridity (Esper et al. 2007; Linares et al. 2011).

Vast primeval cedar forests in the middle of the 15th century on Madeira Island off the coast of North Africa. The island of Madeira (32°39´N, 16°54´W), about 520 km (323 miles) west of the African coast, was so thickly wooded by cedars and other species when the Portuguese first set foot in 1420 that they named it “isola de Madeira,” or “island of timber.” Ships larger than ever before were constructed with cedar wood from Madeira, enabling European global exploration which led to the discovery of America by Columbus in 1492 and the discovery of the ocean route by Vasco da Gama in 1498 (Perlin 2005).

The cedars (Atlas cedar: Cedrus atlantica) are now extinct on Madeira Islands. Due to the deforestation and subsequent land use change for agriculture and grazing, Madeira’s landscape has been changed, suffering from severe drought and frequent wildfires in recent years (NASA 2012).

Returning precipitation in the degraded lands

Urgent need for strategic land planning and management. In the Middle East and North Africa, human impacts such as timber exploitation, fuel extraction, fires, and overgrazing degraded the landscapes of terrestrial vegetation. This altered interaction between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, leading to regional changes in precipitation pattern (e.g., droughts, disappearance of the summer convective storms, and occasional torrential rain due to frontal storms). Due to widespread aridization and lack of biogeographical access to the tree and plant species once ubiquitous in the terrestrial ecosystems, natural restoration of vegetation does not occur automatically.

Geographical distribution of vegetation and high vegetation biomass characterized by high LAI values play a critical part in regional hydrological cycle (Fig. 4), in which evaporated water from the oceans, seas, lakes and rivers returns via rainfall (precipitation). Occurrence of precipitation by shaping landscapes with high LAI to restore the interaction between terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere ensures a sustainable supply of clean freshwater (http://harukanoor4.blogspot.jp/). Government policies for strategic land planning and management, intrinsic solutions to reduce the pressure on water resources, should be adopted. 

Fig. 4 A coast to coast sequential lush landscape, starting from the coast, moving to inland areas and extending up to high mountains, provides a function of cloud formation/development and thereby occurrence of regional rainfall (http://harukanoor4.blogspot.jp/2016/). Occurrence of precipitation by restoring water landscapes along with deep forests ensures sustainable supply of clean freshwater, which is fundamental for socio-economic stability. Policies of strategic land planning and management for normalization of regional hydrological cycle should be adopted.

Implication on global socio-economic stability

Avoiding “Mass Migration Crisis” in Europe. Current “Mass Migration” threatens socio-economic stability of Europe. Reducing “Mass Migration” requires solutions to the underlying challenges of spreading water shortage and ever growing food insecurity.

To open the way for migrant people return to their homelands, the international community should support government policies of strategic land planning/management for restoring precipitation integrated with food security in the migration source countries.

Fate of disappearing rivers and lakes worldwide. Today, water scarcity due to frequent and intense drought and/or groundwater depletion poses a challenge to sustainable water supply throughout the world. If current trends continue unchecked, a significant increase in aridity may progress, threatening future water supply and food security.

Problems from disappearing rivers and lakes are not restricted to the Middle East and North Africa. In many other world regions, lakes are shrinking and major rivers are drying up. In the United States, the flow of the Colorado River has drastically decreased since the beginning of 20th century, and the river runs dry before reaching the sea in most years after 1960 (Gleick and Palaniappan 2010). The Colorado River basin supports 50 million people, 92% of whom live in urban areas. It is projected that the population in this basin will grow by another 23 million people between 2000 and 2030 (Gleick 2010).

Recent research shows that Africa is the original homeland of modern humans (Homo sapiens), which dispersed throughout the world via the Arabian Peninsula. Vanished ancient rivers and lakes in the Middle East and North Africa may imply the fate of today’s drying rivers and lakes all over the world, including the United States. Water is a renewable resource in the sense that evaporated water returns via rainfall (precipitation) by the interaction between terrestrial vegetation and the atmosphere. Conscious that freshwater is a non-substitutable resource, fundamental changes are needed in water governance.

Normalization of regional hydrological cycle that ensures sustainable supply of clean freshwater is fundamental for socio-economic stability. A policy shift to total land planning and management to return precipitation (normalization of regional hydrological cycle) brings important economic and social benefits.

Historically, civilization has developed by exploitation of forest resources and vegetation modification. Many of these modifications are undertaken to remove nuisance and make the environment more pleasant for human habitation. As the concept of shaping high LAI landscapes is contrary to current land planning and management, new paradigms with the strategic vision on restoring precipitation as well as public awareness are crucial.

References　

Abderrahman WA (2006) Saudi Arabia Aquifers. In: Foster S, Loucks DP (Eds.) Non-Renewable Groundwater Resources — A Guidebook on Socially Sustainable Management for Water Policy Makers, UNESCO (IHP-VI Series on Groundwater No.10), Paris, pp. 63–67.

Ajbilou R, Marañón T, Arroyo J (2006) Ecological and biogeographical analyses of Mediterranean forests of northern Morocco. Acta Oecol. 29:104–113. doi: 10.1016/j.actao.2005.08.006

Al-Ansari NA (2013) Management of water resources in Iraq: perspectives and prognoses. J. Eng. 5:667–684. doi: 10.4236/eng.2013.58080

Al-Gamal SA (2011) An assessment of recharge possibility to North-Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS) using environmental isotopes. J. Hydrol. 398:184–190. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.004

Armitage SJ, Drake NA, Stokes S, El-Hawat A, Salem MJ, White K, Turner P, McLaren SJ (2007) Multiple phases of North African humidity recorded in lacustrine sediments from the Fazzan Basin, Libyan Sahara. Quatern. Geochronol. 2:181–186. doi:10.1016/j.quageo.2006.05.019

Armitage SJ, Jasim SA, Marks AE, Parker AG, Usik VI, Uerpmann HP (2011) The southern route “out of Africa”: evidence for an early expansion of modern humans into Arabia. Science 331:453–456. doi: 10.1126/science.1199113

Bakhbakhi M (2006) Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System. In: Foster S, Loucks DP (Eds.) Non-Renewable Groundwater Resources — A Guidebook on Socially Sustainable Management for Water Policy Makers, UNESCO (IHP-VI Series on Groundwater No.10), Paris, pp. 75–81.

Calow RC, MacDonald AM, Nicol AL, Robins NS (2010) Ground water security and drought in Africa: Linking availability, access, and demand. Ground Water 48:246–256. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00558.x

Castle SL, Thomas BF, Reager JT, Rodell M, Swenson SC, Famiglietti JS (2014) Groundwater depletion during drought threatens future water security of the Colorado River Basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41:5904–5911. doi:10.1002/2014GL061055

Chulov M (2009) Iraq: water, water nowhere. World Policy J. 26:33–41. doi: 10.1162/wopj.2010.26.4.33

Crassard R, Petraglia MD, Drake NA, Breeze P, Gratuze B, Alsharekh A, Arbach M, Groucutt HS, Khalidi L, Michelsen N, Robin CJ, Schiettecatte J (2013) Middle Palaeolithic and Neolithic occupations around Mundafan Palaeolake, Saudi Arabia: Implications for climate change and human dispersals. PLoS ONE 8:e69665. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0069665

Drake N, Bristow C (2006) Shorelines in the Sahara: Geomorphological evidence for an enhanced monsoon from palaeolake Megachad. Holocene 16:901–112. doi: 10.1191/0959683606hol981rr

Drake NA, Blench RM, Armitage SJ, Bristow CS, White KH (2011) Ancient watercourses and biogeography of the Sahara explain the peopling of the desert. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 108:458–462. doi: 10.1073/pnas. 1012231108

Edmunds WM (2009) Palaeoclimate and groundwater evolution in Africa—implications for adaptation and management. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54:781–792. doi: 10.1623/hysj.54.4.781

Edmunds WM (2012) Limits to the availability of groundwater in Africa. Environ. Res. Lett. 7:021003. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/021003

El-Naqa A, Al-Shayeb A (2009) Groundwater protection and management strategy in Jordan. Water Resour. Manage. 23:2397–2394. doi: 10.1007/s11269-008-9386-x

Elsheikh A, Abdelsalam MG, Mickus K (2011) Geology and geophysics of the West Nubian Paleolake and the Northern Darfur Megalake (WNPL–NDML): Implication for groundwater resources in Darfur, northwestern Sudan. J. African Earth Sci. 61:82-93. doi: 10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2011.05.004

Engel M, Brückner H, Pint A, Wellbrock K, Ginau A, Voss P, Grottker M, Klasen N, Frenzel P (2012) The early Holocene humid period in NW Saudi Arabia – Sediments, microfossils and palaeo-hydrological modelling. Quat. Int. 266:131–141. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.04.028

Esper J, Frank D, Büntgen U, Verstege A, Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E (2007) Long-term drought severity variations in Morocco. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34: L17702. doi:10.1029/2007GL030844

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2009) Groundwater management in Saudi Arabia, Draft synthesis report. FAO, Rome.

Foley JA, DeFries R, Asner GP, Barford C, Bonan G, Carpenter SR, Chapin FS, Coe MT, Daily GC, Gibbs HK, Helkowski JH, Holloway T, Howard EA, Kucharik CJ, Monfreda C, Patz JA, Prentice IC, Ramankutty N, Snyder PK (2005) Global consequences of land use. Science 309:570–574. doi: 10.1126/science.1111772

Foster S, Loucks DP (2006) Non-Renewable Groundwater Resources — A guidebook on socially sustainable management for water-policy makers, UNESCO (IHP-VI Series on Groundwater No.10), Paris.

Gleick PH (1998) Water in crisis: paths to sustainable water use. Ecol. Appl. 8:571–579. doi: 10.1890/1051-0761(1998)008[0571:WICPTS]2.0.CO;2

Gleick PH (2010) Roadmap for sustainable water resources in southwestern North America. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107:21300–21305. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1005473107

Gleick PH, Palaniappan M (2010) Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 107:11155–11162. doi:10.1073/pnas.1004812107

Gleick PH (2014) Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria. Weather Clim. Soc. 6:331–340. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1

Guendouz A, Moulla AS (2010) The shared resources in the North-Western Sahara Aquifer System (Algeria-Tunisia-Libya): The use of environmental isotopes (Algeria part). International Conference “Transboundary Aquifers: Challenges and New Directions” (ISARM2010).

Jaber JO, Mohsen MS (2001) Evaluation of non-conventional water resources supply in Jordan. Desalination 136:83–92. doi:10.1016/S0011-9164(01)00168-0

Jasem AH, Shammout M, AlRousan D, AlRaggad M (2011) The fate of Disi aquifer as stratigic groundwater reserve for shared countries (Jordan and Saudi Arabia). J. Water Resources Protection 3:711–714. doi:10.4236/jwarp.2011.310081

Jolly D, Prentice IC, Bonnefille R, Ballouche A, Bengo M, Brenac P, Buchet G, Burney D, Cazet J-P, Cheddadi R, Edorh T, Elenga H, Elmoutaki S, Guiot J, Laarif F, Lamb H, Lezine, A-M, Maley J, Mbenza M, Peyron O, Reille M, Reynaud-Farrera I, Riollet G, Ritchie JC, Roche E, Scott L, Ssemmanda I, Straka H, Umer M, Van Campo E, Vilimumbalo S, Vincens A, Waller M (1998) Biome reconstruction from pollen and plant macrofossil data for Africa and the Arabian peninsula at 0 and 6000 years. J. Biogeo. 25:1007–1027. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1998.00238.x

Kelley CP, Mohtadi S, Cane MA, Seager R, Kushnir Y (2015) Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 112:3241–3246. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1421533112

Lézine AM, Saliège JF, Robert C, Wertz F (1998) Holocene lakes from Ramlat as-Sab’atayn (Yemen) illustrate the impact of monsoon activity in southern Arabia. Quat. Res. 50:290–299. doi: 10.1006/qres.1998.1996

Lézine AM, Robert C, Cleuziou S, Inizan ML, Braemer F, Saliège JF, Sylvestre F, Tiercelin JJ, Crassard R, Méry S, Charpentier V, Steimer-Herbet T (2010) Climate change and human occupation in the Southern Arabian lowlands during the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Global Planet. Change 72:412–428. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.016

Linares JC, Taïqui L, Camarero JJ (2011) Increasing drought sensitivity and decline of Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) in the Moroccan Middle Atlas forests. Forests 2:777–796. doi: 10.3390/f2030777

Lippman TW (2010) Saudi Arabia’s quest for food security. Middle East Policy 17:90–98. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2010.00428.x

Lloyd JW, Farag MH (1978) Fossil Ground-water gradients in arid regional sedimentary basins. Ground Water 16:388–393.

Lloyd JW, Pim RH (1990) The hydrogeology and groundwater resources development of the Cambro-Ordovician sandstone aquifer in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. J. Hydrol. 121:1–20. doi. 10.1016/0022-1694(90)90221-I

Mamou A, Besbes M, Abdous B, Latrech DJ, Fezzani C (2006) North-Western Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS). In: Foster S, Loucks DP (Eds.) Non-Renewable Groundwater Resources — A Guidebook on Socially Sustainable Management for Water Policy Makers, UNESCO (IHP-VI Series on Groundwater 10), Paris, pp. 68–74.

Meybeck M (2003) Global analysis of river systems: from Earth system controls to Anthropocene syndromes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. 358:1935–1955. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2003.1379

Mikesell MW (1960) Deforestation in Northern Morocco. Science 132:441–448. doi: 10.1126/science.132.3425.441

Mikesell MW (1969) The deforestation of Mount Lebanon. Geogr. Rev. 59:1–28. doi: 10.2307/213080

Mohsen MS (2007) Water strategies and potential of desalination in Jordan. Desalination 203:27–46. doi: 10.1016/j.desal.2006.03.524

NASA (2012) Available at: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=78603 Accessed February 13, 2016.

Osborne AH, Vance D, Rohling EJ, Barton N, Rogerson M, Fello N (2008) A humid corridor across the Sahara for the migration of early modern humans out of Africa 120,000 years ago. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 105:16444–16447. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0804472105

Pachur HJ, Kröpelin S (1987) Wadi Howar: Palaeoclimatic evidence from an extinct river system in the southeastern Sahara. Science 237:298–300. doi: 10.1126/science.237.4812.298

Parker AG, Eckersley L, Smith MM, Goudie AS, Stokes S, Ward S, White K, Hodson MJ (2004), Holocene vegetation dynamics in the northeastern Rub' al-Khali desert, Arabian Peninsula: a phytolith, pollen and carbon isotope study. J. Quaternary Sci., 19: 665–676. doi:10.1002/jqs.880

Perlin J (2005) A Forest Journey: The Story of Wood and Civilization. Countryman Press, Woodstock.

Petit-Maire N, Carbonel P, Reyss JL, Sanlaville P, Abed A:, Bourrouilh R, Fontugne M, Yasin S (2010) A vast Eemian palaeolake in southern Jordan (29° N). Glob. Planet. Change 72:368–373. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.012

Petraglia MD (2011) Trailblazers across Arabia. Nature 470:50–51. doi:10.1038/470050a

Petraglia MD, Alsharekh AM, Crassard R, Drake NA, Groucutt H, Parker AG, Roberts RG (2011) Middle Paleolithic occupation on a Marine Isotope Stage 5 lakeshore in the Nefud Desert, Saudi Arabia. Quat. Sci. Rev. 30:1555–1559. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.006

Petraglia MD, Alsharekh A, Breeze P, Clarkson C, Crassard R, Drake NA, Groucutt HS, Jennings R, Parker AG, Parton A, Roberts RG, Shipton C, Matheson C, al-Omari A, Veall M-A (2012) Hominin Dispersal into the Nefud Desert and Middle Palaeolithic Settlement along the Jubbah Palaeolake, Northern Arabia. PLoS ONE 7: e49840. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0049840

Richardson CJ, Hussain NA (2006) Restoring the Garden of Eden: An ecological assessment of the marshes of Iraq. BioScience 56:477–489. doi: 10.1641/0006-3568(2006)56[477:RTGOEA]2.0.CO;2

Rosenberg TM, Preusser F, Fleitmann D, Schwalb A, Penkman K, Schmid TW, Al-Shanti MA, Kadi K, Matter A (2011) Humid periods in southern Arabia: Windows of opportunity for modern human dispersal. Geology 39:1115–1118. doi: 10.1130/G32281.1

Sagan C, Toon OB, Pollack JB (1979) Anthropogenic albedo changes and the Earth's climate. Science 206:1363–1368. doi: 10.1126/science.206.4425.1363

Salameh E (2008) Over-exploitation of groundwater resources and their environmental and socio-economic implication: the case of Jordan. Water International 33: 55–68. doi: 10.1080/02508060801927663

Salem O, Pallas P (2004) The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS). In Appelgren B (ed.) Managing Shared Aquifer Resources in Africa, UNESCO (IHP-VI Series on Groundwater No.8), Paris, pp. 19–22.

Scanlon BR, Keese KE, Flint AL, Flint LE, Gaye CB, Edmunds WM, Simmers I (2006) Global synthesis of groundwater recharge in semiarid and arid regions. Hydrol. Processes 20: 3335–3370. doi: 10.1002/hyp.6335

Scanlon BR, Faunt CC, Longuevergne L, Reedy RC, Alley WM, McGuire VL, McMahon PB (2012) Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 109: 9320–9325. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1200311109

Schulz E, Whitney JW (1986) Upper Pleistocene and Holocene lakes in the An Nafud, Saudi Arabia. Hydrobiologia 143:175–190. doi: 10.1007/BF00026660

Shaban A (2009) Indicators and aspects of hydrological drought in Lebanon. Water Resour. Manage. 23:1875–1891. doi: 10.1007/s11269-008-9358-1 

Sharaf MA, Hussein MT (1996) Groundwater quality in the Saq aquifer, Saudi Arabia. Hydrol. Sci. J. 41:683–696. doi: 10.1080/02626669609491539

Shukla J, Mintz Y (1982) The influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the earth’s climate. Science 215:1498–1501. doi: 10.1126/science.215.4539.1498

Sowers J, Vengosh A, Weinthal E (2011) Climate change, water resources, and the politics of adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa. Clim. Change 104:599–627. doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9835-4

Sturchio NC, Du X, Purtschert R, Lehmann BE, Sultan M, Patterson LJ, Lu Z-T, P. Müller P, Bigler K, Bailey K, O’Connor TP, Young L, Lorenzo R, Becker R, El Alfy Z, El Kaliouby B, Dawood Y, Abdallah AMA (2004) One million year old groundwater in the Sahara revealed by krypton-81 and chlorine-36. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31:LO5503. doi: 10.1029/2003GL019234

Taylor RG, Scanlon B, Döll P, Rodell M, van Beek R, Wada Y, Longuevergne L, Leblanc M, Famiglietti JS, Edmunds M, Konikow L, Green TR, Chen J, Taniguchi M, Bierkens MFP, MacDonald A, Fan Y, Maxwell RM, Yechieli Y, Gurdak JJ, Allen DM, Shamsudduha M, Hiscock K, Yeh PJ-F,  Holman I, Treidel H (2013) Ground water and climate change. Nature Clim. Change 3:322–329. doi:10.1038/nclimate1744

Terrab A, Hampe A, Lepais O, Talavera S, Vela E, Stuessy TF (2008) Phylogeography of North African Cedar Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica, Pinaceae): Combined molecular and fossil date reveal a complex Quaternary history. Am. J. Bot. 95:1262–1269. doi:10.3732/ajb.0800010

Thorweihe U, Heinl M (2002). Groundwater resources of the Nubian Aquifer System NE-Africa. Modified synthesis submitted to: Observatoire du Sahara et du Sahel. OSS, Paris, 23 pp.

UN (United Nations) (2013) Water in Iraq Factsheet

UNHCR (December 30, 2015) Over one million sea arrivals reach Europe in 2015. Available at http://www.unhcr.org/5683d0b56.html. Accessed March 26, 2016.

Voss KA, Famiglietti JS, Lo M, de Linage C, Rodell M, Swenson SC (2013) Groundwater depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with implications for transboundary water management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran region. Water Resour. Res. 49:904–914. doi:10.1002/wrcr.20078

Watkin D (1996) A History of Western Architecture. 2nd ed. Laurence King Publishing, London.